Tuesday, 2 June 2009

Gordon admits it's over?

As TB left the house this morning he thought "should the laptop and dongle come too?"

Naaah what's going to happen...? Oh how wrong he was.

After a some beers and a burger in the sunshine with Guido and a few others, the news started to break that Jacqui was a gonna. TB was tied up all afternoon interviewing a rather interesting young lady - watch this space - and then after paying a visit to the Red Lion, showed up for the tail end of the Carlton Club Kiddies drinks. After a mad dash back to the country he is only now finally catching up on what must have been the worst day for the Labour Party since, well, TB isn't sure when. The icing on the cake has to be the resignation of "proppah blogga" and general pillock Tom Watson too.

Much to report from Tuesday, bit of sleep required first. In the mean time TB can offer you some rather interesting footage of what happened tonight when Gordon hit that bottle of Famous Grouse he keeps in the desk drawer...



Interview, rumours and TB's choice for Speaker will all be revealed tomorrow.

A look at the Future...

So here we are, the final furlong of Gordon’s first real electoral test. Up and down the country leaflets are being stuffed through letterboxes, no doubt canvassers are avoiding pitchforks and burning torch bearing mobs in certain constituencies, but it seems the Tories will prevail. If the propaganda being put out on the

Conservative Future website
is to be believed, the dress rehearsal is going swimmingly and CF is ready for the General Election.

But is that really the case?

Depending on who you talk to, CF is apparently the strongest it’s ever been or totally and utterly dead, over, done. There is no doubt that the profile of the organisation is improving. There is finally a website that should have been in place years ago, it's informative and regularly updated and runs rings around anything put forward by the equivalent youth movements of the other parties. Membership is apparently on the increase from campuses and branches around the country. The Dave appeal is really working and in the last few years TB has been able to strut around, head held high, as a Tory, without having rocks thrown at him. But is this just a reflection of the momentum behind the national party or proof that Conservative Future is really making the inroads it should be at this stage in the electoral cycle?
When a youth wing of the Party was first created in 1946/47 it was with the sole intention of creating a streamlined and effective campaigning force that would see the Tories returned to power. It achieved this within five years, but things started to go wrong when it became overtly social or overtly politicised. We should be focussing on one thing and one thing only, and that is winning the General Election. The powers that be have assured TB that CF is ready and that at the drop of a hat the ground troops will be ready to serve. Rather worrying though is the recent decline in the numbers attending national campaign days. Apparently the strategy has changed. Instead of having big campaign days where people from across the country come together to blitz one target seat, local and regional campaign days are apparently now the way forward. In terms of numbers though, it is increasingly worrying to see events that a few years back would have had seventy or eighty activists trundling the streets all day, now attended by twenty or thirty people.

Has CF become too distracted by other things beside the hard work of the campaign trail? Events like media training cannot do any harm and are much needed in some cases, and while everyone loves a good knees up, there does seem to be a drop in the actual number of leaflets being put through doors. It isn’t all bad news though, this week has seen hundreds of people out and about helping the cause, but if that wasn’t happening the weekend before an election then CF really would be in trouble. One thing is for sure though, CF as a campaigning brand has taken a hit. No longer is it CF campaign days, instead its younger members of the Party going out and about with senior members, all hands to the deck. Some may argue that this is a good thing. Why should there be this perpetual focus on the organisation when at the end of the day someone who is forty wants to see a Conservative government just as much as someone who is eighteen? More probably.

One place that CF has grown in the last few months though is online. As mentioned earlier the website is now fully functional, with video and interviews with DC etc. While the main party website has some what tellingly not linked to it yet, it is vastly improved and a good hub for any young member to start online. Local branch websites have also greatly improved through the Rock manifesto promise of free blog platforms.
Birmingham Conservative Future
and the
North West regional blog
are leading lights in the online fight. Although some good coverage has come out of this cyber battle – particularly Michael Rock’s
recent piece
about the true place on the political compass of the BNP, it would be foolish to believe that while the internet will be important at the next election, it will be won solely online.

So what has been going on behind the scenes? While a brief glance at the news section of the CF website would lead you to think everything was hunky dory, the last few months have seen the inevitable blood and tears. Another leading activist was expelled after
allegedly wearing a Hitler moustache to a party
– a claim that the accused former Birmingham head honcho Dan O’Doherty vehemently denied. It was telling that the Mirror, although clearly having the picture, did not publish it, as it would have apparently weakened the story. That wasn’t good enough for CCHQ who having set a precedent with former, slightly err more high profile cases, were quick to move and expel O’Doherty. Punishment was swift for York chairman Ralph Buckle too, for the much lesser misdemeanour of dressing up as Lord Tebbit.

So while misbehaviour gets attention, the backroom antics and “politics” of CF often very intentionally goes under the radar. While TB has been somewhat out of the loop for the last few months, there have been some interesting questions raised by the recent re-jigging of roles under taken by various members of the National Executive. Since the Rock administration had its term extended indefinitely, a quarter of original executive have now quit and another two are definitely showing signs of losing interest/patience/the will to live. The decision by CCHQ to put off a CF election, while understandable given the expense and tendency to end up in a bit of a mess, has not gone down well with the members, or the current exec it seems. There are reports of fatigue and a general loss of interest, hence why it is of no surprise to see two of the weaker members of the original line up already gone and rumours coming in thick and fast that Adele Douglas and Steve Ricketts are openly considering their positions. Loyal Christian May is helping the cause further a field through his work with
YBF
, and other than some recent radio appearances hasn’t been making the same impact he once did in the CF world. This leaves an interesting power quartet pulling the strings of the organisation in the shape of Chairman Michael Rock, his loyal co-option Richard Jackson, new kid on the exec block Edward Hallam and of course, CF’s finest drinker Patrick Sullivan. This was the backbone of the Rock campaign team, yet only Sullivan was originally elected to the executive… sniff sniff.

The CF constitution states very clearly (TB would like to link to it but it has been removed from the website,) that the Chairman is allowed three co-options in the course of his tenure. Jackson was taken on immediately without voting rights in order to handle the communication side of things. Hallam’s recent promotion, from no where to National Campaigns coordinator, is slightly murkier though. As far as TB can ascertain, when former campaigns honcho Sullivan broke his arm and was out of action for six weeks, Hallam, a long time supporter and close personal friend of Rock, stood in, upon Sullivan’s recommendation, in the campaigns role. At the end of the six weeks Rock cut a deal with Sullivan to see Hallam co-opted onto the executive full time as campaigns guru in return for Sullivan having full control of the students and universities portfolio. This hasn’t been greeted with universal support and certain executive members are up in arms about whether the whole move is even constitutional. There is meant to be a vote by simple majority for a co-option.

Problem is there hasn’t been an Exec meeting in over six months.

One senior member of the exec told TB last night that this isn’t really a problem and if anything, more gets done without the meetings which tend to bring rather large egos together and are often messy and counter productive. Hallam is a formidable campaigner and looks set crank things up a notch in the run up the General. It would therefore be a shame if he was to be tainted with controversy. A statement of some sort needs to be put out clarifying exactly how the decision to have him co-opted was reached. TB can see no problem with the co-option, but like so many things in the last year or so in the CF world, the end result is often sullied by the ways and means in which it was achieved. Reforms. Cough. Another thing to consider is the fact that National Campaigns is an extremely important portfolio, arguably second only to Chairman. Hallam is bastion of soundness but will need to be much more “mainstream” in his role. For example
posting an interview
with the Chairman of UKIP Youth in the week before the European elections has led some eyebrows to be raised. Ed is also apparently standing for re-election of the flagship Cities of London and Westminster Conservative Future branch. Some might suggest that coordinating the entire CF election campaign would be a full time job but hey.

So even after a quite significant break down in communications and relations between Sullivan and Michael Rock/Jackson over the reforms, it seems that hatchets have been buried and it’s these four who will be responsible for the entire success, or failure, of the CF General Election campaign. Planning needs to have started months ago and high profile media stunts need to be ready to be put into action, right across the country with less than an hours notice. There is a possibility of the General Election happening this summer and despite whatever assurances are given from the top, TB has spoken to branches and members around the country who are not convinced that things are quite as ready as they could be.

In looking back over the last few months, it is impossible not to then look forward to the future of Conservative Future. Touch wood in less than ten months the Conservative Party will be in power, what then for its youth division? First things first - an internal election. TB spoke to Eric Pickles at Scottish Conference, and lets just say the prospect of holding an election before the General didn’t go down well and it was made very clear – it’s not going to happen. The argument that perhaps a little revitalisation at the top might help the election efforts fell on deaf ears. This won’t go down well with everyone but there is seemingly very little your average CF Joe can do about it. We all want a Tory government and don’t want to do anything to jeopardise that. That rules a strike out then. One thing that has to change though is the treatment that CF receives from the senior party. It is treated with a combination of disdain and impatience by many. You don’t hear many complaints when ten activists do an entire estate in a couple of hours though. CF needs fixed terms, and real fixed terms for its executive and it needs full control over its budget. Only then will the executive have the power to drive through real changes that the organisation needs and be fully accountable to the membership every twelve months.

There is a hell of a long way to go before we get to that stage though. Enough of the navel gazing – Conservative Future has done enough of that in the last year. The reforms, though brutal in their instigation are beginning to shine and now we have the serious hard work to do. The faces we have now are the faces that will run the General Election campaign, and like it or not, CF members must throw their full weight behind this team. The executive need to put past differences and petty battles behind them and fall into place as a streamlined unit.

So that’s what’s going on in the CF world. In case you were wondering.

A sign of things to come?

The Guardian
has this morning endorsed the dead ducks:
"The case for supporting the Liberal Democrats is now very strong. Anyone who believes Britain should be an engaged member of the European Union - who does not believe scare stories about the Lisbon treaty and who wants to back a party that campaigns on this - should vote Lib Dem. So should anyone who cares about constitutional renewal. Nick Clegg's party has ancestral roots in the battle to establish democracy, and its radical ideas stand in uplifting contrast to Labour's still too cautious agenda. The higher the Lib Dem vote, the more progressive plans for political renewal will be shown to have popular backing. People should remember, too, that on two other great crises - the debt-driven collapse of high finance and climate change - the Lib Dems led the way."
Yet another low for Labour:
"It is hard to find the same enthusiasm for Labour's campaign. Indeed, it is hard to tell what Labour stands for at all in this contest, except the repeated claim on its website that a Conservative government would be worse. That evades the progressive issues of the moment, and also the point of a European election. The party has forgotten how to be positive. Without an agenda for the future, it will not win on the past."
In other news it seems The Sun, a newspaper that actually has influence, is
fully on board
the Dave wagon. Hurrah.

Monday, 1 June 2009

Tweet o'the Day

@

torybear
 when I was young and a YC, we achieved nothing. Nick Robinson was our chairman. CF has made itself a force. Write about that!
  
graemearcher

Navel gazing..

TB feels he has neglected his home patch recently and will be writing a sort of "state of play" post tonight about Conservative Future, where we  are at now, what can be done better and what has been going on in the last few months. This blog was originally set up to keep a critical eye on the organisation but that seems to have expanded to a broader look at youth and mainstream British politics. That's not to say that TB doesn't have one or two things that need a full and frank discussion...

A few events, rumours and conversations have triggered this but TB was wondering if there was anything anyone out there wanted to get off their chest or would like to see included in the post?

Statporn: May 2009

Traffic was down this month, which no doubt had something to do with TB sitting finals and the two weeks of hedonistic carnage that followed. The Nick Brown Twitter story was the big fish:

55,523 pageviews from 40,772 vists.

Top 5 stories for the month were:
As ever a massive thank you to you all.

Looking for a fun job?

Tory Bear's man in Cowley Street has informed him that applications to be the
ringmaster of Liberal Youth
haven't exactly been overwhelming. "Good rapport" must be the understatement of the century. It will take the patience of a saint to deal with Bagshaw and co when they throw their toys out of the pram. "Effective communication skills"? Yeah good luck spinning the messes they seem to thrive on creating.

Hopefully whoever they find won't leave describing the job as a "belittling and unpleasant experience" like the last chap did...

I'm sorry Darling, it's over.

Looks like Brown will have a pretty watertight excuse to fire Alastair Darling and replace him with Ed Balls on Friday. The Telegraph have
focused on him
again in Monday's edition and it's not looking too good. As
James Forsyth
observed, Vince Cable was spot on with his damnation of Darling on Sunday:

"Here is the company finance director caught with his fingers in the till. He doesn’t explain. He doesn’t apologise. He just blames his colleagues for not stopping him. His moral authority has vanished. He must go, now."

This is the first time that TB has ever agreed with something said by the massively over rated and really rather sad Vince Cable. Perhaps if old Vince had remained in the Labour Party, they wouldn't be in the mess they are now.

So the path is clear for Balls. Let the games begin.

Sunday, 31 May 2009

Seems Ralph is quite the chatterbox...

Well there is no going quietly for Ralph "ever heard of UKIP?" Buckle. The now very expelled former chairman of York University Tories is back with a new blog, rather appropriatly named
Tory Outcast
.

Many out there would expect Ralph to have gone quietly, let the dust settle and come back in a year or two once everyone had forgotten about it all. It seems, however, that Mr Buckle is enjoying his new found freedom. Although TB doesn't agree with the some what
tin foil hat inspired posts
on the blog so far, it will no doubt make for interesting reading in the next few months. Always best to have these sorts pissing out of the tent rather than standing on the sidelines pissing in, but hey...

Bit late for that now.

How does this work?

This delightful bit of spam managed to get past TB's filters. Starts off all polite and everything...

Dear Esteemed Customer,

This is an important Barclays bank security Message .

We Recently reveiwed your account, and suspected that your Barclays Ibanking Account,
may have been violated from another IP.
Protecting the security of your account and of the barclays bank network is our primary concern therefore,
as a preventive measure,we have temporarily limited your access to sensitive account features.

To restore your account access,please take the following step to ensure that your account has not been compromised.

1,Login to your barclays bank internet banking acconut.
and you will have to fill in all required information.

2 Reveiws your recent account history for any unautorized withdrawers or deposites,
and check your account profile to make sure no changes was made.
If any unauthorized activities has been made ,report to any barclay bank close to you.

Kind regards,
Barclays Bank Plc


There was then a link to follow to "log in". The bold highlights were added by TB but seriously though, who would fall for that?

Anyone who received that email and then felt the need to divulge their bank details deserves to be robbed as they clearly have more money than sense
.

Tory Bear's new office...

Home sweet home...


TB could get used to blogging al desko...

Gordon's alive...

There has been much talk this week of Macavity Brown laying low and hiding because the going is getting tough. This was one of his favourite tricks as Chancellor, but funnily enough people begin to ask questions when the Prime Minister and First Lord of the Treasury, the leader of a nation, the first amongst equals, is not seen in public for days on end. However panic not loyal subjects, the dear leader Kim Yong Broon is in fact alive and well... Well... not that well.

Instead of focusing on the economy, or dragging the reputation of Parliament out of the mud, dear old Gordo decided to meet some young movers and shakers in order to discuss that burning political issue - votes at 16. Via the excellent, yet sorely deluded blog of

NUS President Wes Streeting
, TB was much relived to see that Gordon was alive and kicking:
...and no doubt throwing mobile phones after tonight's polling data.

Apparently he is making an appearance on the Andrew Marr program tomorrow morning, and about bloody time. Given that it is now 2am, TB doubts very much that he will be awake in time, but it should be an interesting show given that recent data suggests that Labour could finish behind
a jumped up pressure group
in the Euro polls, and behind the most
ridiculous group of tits
in the General.

Shall we have a guess? "UKIP is a problem that started in America..."

Don't fight it...

LabourHome
executive editor
Mark Hanson
has an
interesting little piece
on LabourList about the fact that Labour have started inviting bloggers to their lobby and press briefings. Now granted ConservativeHome have had a presence at pretty much every political speech or event TB has been to, this is, however, a bigger step in embracing the fact that new meeja is actually where it's at.

"There have been ripples of curiosity in the blogosphere about the decision by Labour’s press team to include bloggers in the daily briefings being given to journalists in advance of the Euro elections.

Jack Straw did one on crime and constitutional affairs on Wednesday with Ed Balls on Children, Schools and Families the following day.

I went along to the Straw session, held at 39 Victoria Street and this is how it went:
It was billed at 10:45 for 11am start but Straw was late, keeping everyone waiting in the holding room for about twenty minutes!

He then did a 5 minute summary of the choice facing the electorate on law and order. We’d all been handed an A4 document beforehand with Labour’s achievements on crime down one side and the Tories shortcomings on the other and his talk was a summary of that.

Unlike on the West Wing or at the PM’s monthly press conference, it isn’t a free-for-all in terms of asking questions. Basically Labour’s press team have a list of attendees and each one is called out and offered the chance to ask one question plus one follow up. I couldn’t work out what order people journalists were asked.

There were about 20 press from the lobby/home affairs beat, so that meant 40 questions about law and order…..er no, about 6 questions about crime and the rest about MPs expenses.
"

Without wanting to sound like a complete geek and waffle on about blogging and bloggers own self importance, TB would just like to say that the Tories really need to up their game and get involved in this sort of thing. Without the slow process of cutting down trees, making paper, printing on said paper and then driving these bits of paper around the country, bloggers can get a story out in seconds. Surly this is something that any party media machine needs to realise and whether they like it or not, should attempt to embrace. In other words... any chance of a lobby pass?

Oh go on... TB promises he will be good.

Yo yo, one time...

Now TB would normally suggest that amateur rap and politics is never going to be a good combination, but once you get over initial wtf!?!? and mild cringe, there is something remarkably catchy about this little video from a couple of young conservatives across the pond:



Our very own

Young Conservative
suggests that TB has a go at creating a British version. Tory Bear isn't sure his street credentials are quite high enough to be able to pull this off, however, any CF hacks out there agree that Owen Meredith and Christian May bare a remarkable similarity to these two? TB's card would be behind the bar if they can be persuaded...

TB canvass bags up for grabs for your own video submissions.

A change of heart?

OF all the vicious "cyber nats" out there,
Advanced Media Watch
is the only one that Tory Bear ever really gives more than the occasional glance. These web-based nationalist fighters often get into pretty vile scraps with Labour, ones that make TB look tame. TB is 99.8% sure he knows who runs AMW, although they have been very careful to protect their identity, they have left all sorts of obvious clues all over the blogosphere.

However outing anonymous ranters aside, it does always make TB chuckle when someone leaves himself open to such easy attack. AMW has castigated and shat upon the very concept of the union between England and Scotland for months now and is often blind in his loyalty to the SNP local administration across the border. However, what is the one thing that will bind even the hardest of cyber-nats with his unionist brothers in arms? What one event can bring the people of this grand archipelago together in unison?

Britain's Got Talent of course. How refreshing to see the Union Flag flying proudly on AMW's blog.
How proud TB was to hear AMW hype himself into a frenzy about how fantastic the program was, and although he was rooting for the Scottish acts, Mr AMW is clearly a big fan of the people of this island coming together for competition and entertainment. Perhaps it's time for AMW to open his eyes and look a little further beyond reality television and look around at how Scotland and England united is a something to admire not just on ITV.

No doubt with the passing of BGT the petty racism and romaticised, farcical, deluded nationalist dream will be back with a vengance soon.

Tory Bear has finally ventured from the north and it's already looking set to be a great summer. London, New York, Washington and even a cheeky few weeks in France. The blog has suffered a little this month through exam hell and post exam carnage, but fear not, TB is back and has big plans for the next few months. Anyway, in a tradition that slipped slightly in the last few weeks, here is a peek at some must reads from the Sunday papers:
  • "A white man racist nominee would be forced to withdraw, Latina woman racist should also withdraw." The Telegraph reports on the Obama's latest mess.
  • Carla Bruni's ex is now an advisor to Sarko according to The Times. Still no sign of that sex tape.
  • David Miliband isn't very subtle in raising his flag in the NOTW.
  • The Telegraph reports tht Labour have slipped behind the Lib Dems . Could Nick Clegg really be the next Leader of the Opposition?
  • And finally... according to The Times... IT'S BALLS.

Friday, 29 May 2009

It's the little changes that will matter...

Hats off to
Craig Elder
and co at the CCHQ online campaigning team. They have just launched a Facebook app where you can give over your FB status to the tories who can use it to push links and remind people to vote in the run up to next week's elections. This is textbook Obama/McCain and it's looking like the Tories will be leading the battle in the first ever web dominated General Election.

Brown gets a frosty reception

Apologies for the lack of blogging today, TB is attempting to pack up four years of accumilated junk into ikea bags and boxes. Not as much fun as it sounds.



Classic stuff from the great

Tory Politico
.

Thursday, 28 May 2009

Liberal Hissy Fit.

Oh how the mighty fall. There is no greater pleasure than seeing a Lib Dem show their true colours. Of all the pious and holier-than-thou sandal wearers, no man has the ability to wind people up more than London Liberal Youth's Campaign Coordinator Edwin Loo. This is the man that threatened to to sue London Conservative Future over the apparent theft of a policy idea and is not one to cross, apparently.

Well these Liberals aren't as fluffy and nice as they pretend to be. Much to Tory Bear's amusement Mr Loo went on a furious tirade last night on the
Liberal Youth Forums
allegedly threatening physical violence towards a fellow activist. Did anyone get a screen grab before the post was taken down?

There are conflicting accounts of what actually happened but Mr Loo tonight admitted to losing his temper and threatening to throw a drink at Liberal Youth trouble maker in chief Sara Scarlett. This is what the post mentioned after it was edited, twice.

Typical wishy washy Lib Dem - can't even decide what threat to use.

Send Hannan to Westminster.

Bracknell, Bromsgrove, Congleton, Gosport, Macclesfield, Norfolk South West, Skipton and Ripon, Sleaford and North Hykeham, Totnes, Woking.

All these ultra safe Tory seats are now up for grabs.

Someone call Dan Han.