...then don't read
Indeed, according to John Maloney of Exeter University, the Tories must secure a 10 per cent lead over Labour to win an overall majority of just one seat at the next election. In other words David Cameron faces a very high mountain to climb. The most astute Conservative strategists are keenly aware of this problem, as is Cameron himself.Oh dear.
An internal Tory Party document sets out the scale of the problem, stating baldly: 'The Conservatives have never won a General Election from a starting point as weak as they face now.'
The paper calculates that to win a majority, the Conservatives must hold every seat they won in 2005, plus an additional 117 constituencies. To put that in perspective, Margaret Thatcher notched up an additional 63 seats in 1979 for the Tories, while Edward Heath made 69 gains in 1970.
The Tory briefing note sums up the problem as follows: 'To become Prime Minister, David Cameron must surpass the electoral achievements of both Margaret Thatcher and Winston Churchill.'
Only once before have Conservatives made gains of the scale that Cameron requires to obtain an overall majority after the election. But that was in the exceptional circumstances of the National Government of 1931, when the Labour Party had split in two.
But most crucially, Cameron is well aware that a simple overall majority would not be enough for him to govern effectively. Instead, he needs a working majority of at least 30 seats (which means a majority of 15 per cent over Labour on election day).
“Thank you Fraser.TB hates him, but damn it, you got to respect him.
It is a great honour to be the first winner of this prestigious award to come from outside the ranks of the Bullingdon Club since 2006.
I am not sure what the collective noun for Bullingdon Club members is – I am looking for the word. I know its not chumps.
Anyway, I am sure it will come to me. On which subject, I am pleased to be following in the footsteps of last year’s winner, the Mayor of London.
Winning this award is another thing to add to the list of things I have in common with Boris.
Both of us have spent happy years working in Brussels. Both of us have come back from very public resignations. And, of course, both of us share a driving ambition to do all we can to undermine David Cameron.
And while we are on the Bullingdon Club theme, I must say it does feel odd being up here this year without George. I missed him on holiday this year as well. Was it something I did?
I have reason to be doubly grateful to The Spectator after they so kindly welcomed me back last year with the Newcomer of the Year Award.
And who would have thought a year on – I would still be in the Cabinet?
So it is with as much relief as pride that I receive the Politician of the Year award today.
I haven’t actually accumulated a new title for at least a few weeks so this is particularly welcome.
Of course, you know me. I am happy to serve in whatever capacity I can be of most use – as I was saying when I just happened to be in Brussels last Friday.
A long planned engagement.
Before I go I want to pay tribute to Matthew D’Ancona for his transformation of The Spectator. And he has a ferociously intelligent – not to say increasingly ubiquitous – successor in Fraser Nelson who I have no doubt will keep all of us on our reforming toes.
Boris and I are testament to the fact that political comebacks are possible.
Which is why I look forward to handing this award over to Gordon Brown next year rather than handing it over to yet another member of the Bullingdon Club.
Once again, many thanks. It is always good to be recognised by my friends on the centre right.”
The Liberal Democrats like to pretend that the eclectic mix of fruitcakes they have speaking on certain policy areas are a "Shadow Cabinet". They like to pretend that they are an actual opposition when in reality the whole thing smacks of "go back to your constituencies and prepare for government."
As much as they ham this shad cab thing up, it's good to see that at least the Lib Dem IT department have a dose of reality. For a laugh google "
Click on the 
Oh dear, there it is from the horses mouth. The Liberal Democrats do not have a shadow cabinet. They have spokesmen on policy areas.
"Whilst watching Spooks yesterday I reconsidered if I should keep on blogging or give it up, it seems that the Journalist Blogger on the Spooks programme got killed for blogging. I actually thought to myself, is blogging worth it? I am someone who has made friends via the blog but a lot of enemies, my message to those enemies is, don't try anything without considering your chances of getting away with it!"
..then you're not coming in.
The list has only been circulated among a handful of senior Tories. According to one insider with knowledge of the plans: 'If you're not on Maude's list, then perhaps it's time to start thinking about your exit strategy.'So come on then who has made it onto the list?
Traditionally, cabinet ministers have had two special advisers each, but the Conservatives are planning just one special adviser per cabinet minister, with a separate pool of special advisers based in Downing Street.
Ministerial special advisers would focus on policy, while only those based in Downing Street would be authorised to deal with the media. The Tory plan would reduce the overall number of special advisers in government.
TB's invite must have got lost on the way, damn postal strike eh? Anyway a word or two on the results of the
Labour candidate Julie Hilling is obviously working very very hard for the people of Bolton West. She has an entire section of the website
Could be an intersting one today. Especially if Dave goes on Afghanistan again.
To keep you entertained while you wait TB would like to flag up an interesting idea that
Here's an idea for 'Dave' Cameron:Not a bad plan. As ever TB will be tweeting his way through events.
In effect he has six questions to ask at PMQs, a main question and supplementary questions, usually in two sets of three or in a single volley of six.
So, why doesn't Dave run a "Suggest a Question" page or blog online?
The public could suggest questions to ask the Prime Minister, which would be voted on by others. The most popular questions could get asked by Cameron at PMQs. It might not be desirable or practical to devote one set of questions to a suggested topic, but Cameron's questions will normally reflect some matter of public policy concern.
An easy way to connect with the public, an easy way to increase interest in PMQs.
It's not all gossip you know. As promised, TB has started contributing longer, more thoughtful, less gossipy pieces to his
While The Sun has pushed this story hard and is clearly out to get Brown at all costs, the reaction from the left has been somewhat hysterical.Read the rest
Firstly, when you have copies of The Sun being torn up at the podium of Labour Party Conference to the hounding cheers of a blood thirsty audience, you have to expect a little retaliation. Secondly, The Sun is a tabloid, why the shock that they are using tabloid tactics? Most of the outrage from Labour is faux and manufactured, the reasons why being examined later.
It is hard not to feel a pang of sympathy concerning legibility as it was somewhat underhand to begin by attacking Brown for his handwriting. However the fervency with which Labour supporters have sustained their attacks, even when discussion has moved on to equipment, proves that the anger that is really out there. Tribal anger that The Sun is now backing the Conservatives. Labour may have laughed it off or played it down at their conference, but there is pain below the surface. It takes real desperation to attack a grieving mother but that has happened. Everyone knows that The Sun will only go for who they think are going to win, and Labour more than anyone know how accurate the paper is at gauging these things. The zeal and persistence of The Sun bashing in the last 24 hours have exposed not only the hypocrisy of Labour, but also the salt that is being poured into their already gaping wounds.
Controversially the hypocrisy of Brown’s defence, the appropriately titled having one’s cake and eating it approach, must be analysed. Any mention of Gordon’s eyesight is met with howls of derision from his supporters. Legitimate questions of whether it is affecting his work as Prime Minster are not allowed to be asked. If this is going to be the case then fine, if they believe that there is no problems there, then fine. Eyesight cannot then be used as excuse for a spectacular media disaster, if it is not allowed to be discussed on a good day. You can’t shut down discussion with outrage only to use the same topic of conversation to quell outrage elsewhere.
"At Boris' QTime at Brixton Academy and wondering, again, how this man is our Mayor,though think those booing him shld stop"Ohh stop booing! How very kind of you oh great one, but err come again? "wondering, again, how this man is our Mayor?" How about because 1,168,738 Londoners voted for him? Such off the cuff, casual disregard for the electorate gives a real glimpse into the mindset of this ruthlessly ambitious and self aggrandising individual. While many may wish to declare Umunna the saviour of the Labour Party, he is exactly the wrong sort of candidate Parliament needs. No wonder some in Streatham
"comprehensively concentrating on Streatham’s Fundamental Needs – rather than simply using Downtrodden Streathamites as a Formidable Launchpad for Higher Political Office (elsewhere)."Fair to say Umunna is not your guy for that.
TB just had one of those moments where he sprayed Diet Coke all over the keyboard laughing. He is not sure whether to be terrified or highly flattered at the
Harry will get back to you with a quote the same day. Usually something along the lines of, "Sound."Cheeky sods.
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