Reshuffle headaches...

So Ali and little Davie won't budge off the swings, but Mandy and wee Eddie want a go. This could turn out to be quite a headache for the teacher...

There is a real pickle here for Gordon. Darling is screwed on expenses and could make a nice scapegoat for the recent problems. Brown and Balls apparently used to stay up late at night talking about when Gordon was PM and Balls his loyal neighbour at No11, but Gordon must realise how unpopular his blinking chum really is. He is hated not just in the PLP, but the wider public too. To try put him in the Treasury would send even more Labour backbenchers and other Cabinet members to the rebellion.

Another problem is Darling knows where the bodies are buried. He has been up close and personal with Brown for the last two years, he's seen the blood and the tears and a couple of articles and speeches from him would bring the whole house of cards crashing down. He was putting out thinly veiled threats last night through "friends" that suggested it would be the Treasury or nothing for him. Balls is a loyal puppet, but how would he take being hacked down at the knees by Gordon, destroying his last ever chance of fulfilling his life's dream of becoming Chancellor?

So Darling has to go somewhere and will refuse any job but Chancellor. He could be pretty dangerous on the backbenches and Gordo must know this.

Over at the Foreign Office another headache is brewing. Miliband said the other day that he wanted at least another four years as Foreign Secretary (someone should really break it to him gently!) Reports again last night suggested that he too would refuse to go elsewhere in the Cabinet. Crick confirmed on Newsnight that Mandy had been witnessed openly discussing his desire to get his foot across the FCO threshold and this is where it gets complicated. Gordon may yet regret bring Mandy back from Brussels. He is by far the most sophisticated spinner and operator Labour has left and essentially has Gordon by the short and curlies. As one of the original gang of four he still has a lot of power over the New Labour machine. A public loss of confidence from Mandy would spell the end for Brown pretty much instantly. Miliband is also a leadership contender, and one that Gordon would loath to see succeed him, but like Darling he is a problem to upset. Miliband, despite his botched attempt at a coup last year and his loss of dignity through all things banana related since then, still has friends and the media would go to another level were he to do the dirty.

So it's a real tough one for Gordon. Who is the most dangerous to upset? TB's gut instinct says that Darling will play a key role in the axing of Gordon, they were once close friends and it would add to the increasing drama and Shakespearean feel to the whole saga. Brown would be a fool to force Mandy's hand. Mandy has his heart set on the FCO and TB is fairly sure Mandy gets what Mandy wants. If he was serious about refusing other jobs then Miliband is clearly heading for the backbenches. Could he not be convinced to go to the Home Office?

At this rate it will be amazing if Gordon is even able to get to a reshuffle. The plates are moving fast, but if it does go ahead, for what it's worth, here are TBs predictions:

No11: Balls
FCO: Mandy
Home: Woodward

Carslberg don't do Labour reshuffles, but if they did...